| 8 May 2012 @ 18:10, by Heiner Benking|
To get started I recommend: "SIX GOALS of Shaping the Future" and the videos online.
The Warnings and Goals of the Club of Rome? - all agreed upon ! But what next and how? The late Donnella Meadows and prinicipal author of the report from 1972 spoke about "leverage points! - where to intervene in systems". Before I go deeper even until in November in Hannover the VOLKSWAGEN FOUNDATION will "commemorate" / "celebrate" ? their contributions and maybe how and in which context the report came about. I will cover some backgrounds and contexts around these days in the late 60ies and early 70ies and what this could mean for possible, desired futures in these interviews for EUROPEsWORLD so let us be brief here and come direct to my concerns and points of necessary action.
To say the Apocalypse is on the horizon is not enough ! It is definitely closer now than 40 years ago - or 20 years at the times of the Earth Summit Rio 1992 preparations.
So what are the leverage points Donella Meadows requested? In the lecture of Randers, reports and summaries I saw so far, I only see the common policy plastic words, intangible meaningless, dumbing-down nominalistic terms. See : Humane Information Society (1998) and or Virtual Reality and the Public-pros&cons(1994)(German) or Towards a New Renaissance 3(2009).
When I glance at the book and start with Chapter 1: "Worries about the Future"
I am getting very concerned. See: [More]
LATE NOTE but please do not forget to check Anthony Judge's view on the matter http://www.laetusinpraesens.org/docs10s/onto2052.php:
Engendering 2052 through Re-imagining the Present [link] - Transcend's page: [link]
or an earlier view on the matter [link]
I am getting very concerned. There are only Futures and they have to be created and lived to come into the Presence. Randers talk is about the doomsday he can predict, but is able to see moved a little further, beyond 2052 !
How can he dare? Is he an alarmist and merchant of bad news? This is in my view the ruling mindset from 40 years ago. Little has been learned the last 40 years, even less acomplished to bend the trend, make a difference on how to understand, communicate, and come to action towards shared goals.
But what can we expect from model and scenario builders, who are just and only that and have not looked into the "METHODENSTREIT" (even when pretending deep involvement with the "Predicament Report". The METHODENSTREIT was primarily about including participatory and normative futures as worked on since 1968, later leading to the formation of the original Club of Rome. When Özbekhan presented his "Towards a General Theory of Planning" leading to the concept of "Futures Creation". Forrester and Peccei attending this memorable Bellagio event in 1968, as published by OECD in 1969, mentioning already 28 CCPs ! but the linking between the problems and issues, the "deep drivers", were left aside And as we say: "Out of sight and out of mind", or who ignores problems with problems or meta-problems, is "doomed to have more and accelerating problem syndromes. So maybe this is where and why we are doomed - but this avenue is not taken by the Club of Rome 2052 report: We are doomed"
Maybe we are doomed much earlier or much later, maybe we are doomed in ways we cannot imagine! So why all these -isms instead of getting our acts together?
We know that we misuse technology to live unsustainably, create footprints many times above the thresholds of regeneration. We know that we can not swallow something larger than our oesophagus, or our alimentary canal. We do still all these overclaims and oversimplification without overview and orientation.
WHY? Why dont's we explore also our http://mindprint.tv/ and make our footprints more obvious and tangible. A good thing I saw that the report "2052" includes area dimensions, densities, a great step after so much work from Ries andd Wackernagel for so long. But this can only be one necessary step for other kinds of framing, modeling and embodiment. I recommend again the work of Anthony Judge, who knows all these people and their work, like Özbekhan, Jantsch, Chirstakis, Siu,... But are the proposals from before Rio 1992, have they been revisited?, have we looked again into the Yehezkel Dror Capacity to Govern recommendations?
NOPE. Instead we write again and again the same reports which only present the obvious problems and trends with more colour and greater detail, but in unclear frames and contexts !
Moving ahead without going deeper and concretely checking root causes, drivers and leverage points to really start action is the point of my concern and critique. Positive responses now as we collect for years: YOUTH-LEADER instead of apathy and sleeping over problems, getting them out of sight and out of mind. ???
Reading Randers first chapter I get very concerned ! The first report of the Club: PREDICAMENT OF MANKIND was written by Hasan Özbekhan and his team. Randers was in the other camp, so why should he get busy writing an already finalized report, when the team of Forrester were focusing just on prognostic futures, ignoring the Continuous Complex Problems (CCPs), and in essence trying invalidate the whole thrust and philosophical foundations of the original Club of Rome Prospectus.
We are struggling now since 40 years with the focus on single issues in single sectors, acting on the top 5 or so problems in isolation, instead of checking the frames, contexts, scales, interactions, proportions, and consequences, and exploring the leverage points ! Jay Forrester only much later looked into complex, dynamic, vague, ….subject areas when focussing on education. But still there is a long way to go from an engineering, systems, economists point of view to something the more complex situation that we consider link:http://benking.de/futures/ECOTHEE--ignorance-compassion.pdf|ecology-economy-ecumene-ecudomy:}
What we have to address is holistic, systemic and comprehensive and beyond the Age of “Show”: Age of “Show”: We need to open and widen” the conversationsubject area of vague, highly coplex, dynamic and living (perplexing) issues I feel everybody, even economists and lawyers can easily read this presentation by Charles François, Founder and Editor in Chief of the INTERNATIONAL ENCYCLOPEDIA OF SYSTEMS AND CYBERNETICS
Finally I recommend: A RETROSPECTIVE STRUCTURAL INQUIRY done 23 years after publishing the Problematique: description **** [link] (done by Özbekhan and Christakis) and my interviews with Christakis or an eulogy for Hasan Özbekhan 5 years ago.
ONE LAST CONCERN:
It must be that Jorgen Randers memory is fading... but I also can see little impact of the first two reports of the Club of Rome on his writings and work done the last 40 years !! So how can we make a difference the next 40 years beyond doomsday worrying!?
When I glance at the book and start with Chapter 1: "Worries about the Future."
I am getting very concerned. There are only Futures and they have to be created and lived to come into the Presence. Randers talk is about the doomsday he can predict and moves a little further, beyond 2052. How can he dare? He is an Alarmist and so is the work done by such model and scenario builders. But doing alarming postures like We are Doomed without going deeper and concretely checking root courses, drivers and leverage points to really start action is my concern and critique. Positive responses now as we collect for years: [link] description instead of apathy and sleeping over problems, getting them out of sight and out of mind.
Reading Randers first chapter I get very concerned ! The 1st report PREDICAMENT OF MANKIND was written by Hasan Özbekhan and his team. Randers was in the other camp, so why should he get busy writing an already finalized report, when the team of Forrester were doing all to just focus on prognostic futures, ignoring the Continuous Complex Problems (CCPs). Besides, besides their competition led them to in essence invalidate the whole thrust and philosophical foundations of the original Club of Rome Prospectus.
We are struggling now since 40 years with the focus on single issues in single sectors, acting on the top 5 or so problems in isolation, instead of checking the frames, contexts, scales, interactions, proportions, and consequences, and exploring the leverage points ! Jay Forrester only much later looked into complex, dynamic, vague, …. Subject areas when focussing on education. But still there is a long way to go from an engineering, systems, economists point of view to something we need to consider ecology-economy-ecumene-ecudomy: What we have to address is holistic, systemic and comprehensive and beyond the Age of “Show”:
To “widen” the subject area I feel you should read will be explored deeper below.)
Finally I recommend: A RETROSPECTIVE STRUCTURAL INQUIRY done 23 years after publishing the Problematique: (done by Özbekhan and Christakis) and my interviews with Christakis or an eulogy for Hasan Özbekhan 5 years ago.
It must be that Jorgen Randers memory is fading but I can see no impact of the fist two reports of the Club of Rome on his writings and work done the last 40 years.
1) Why not revisit the original Prospectus and the Problematique of the Club of Rome? where normative, participative, collaborative, pragmatic and deliberative ways, means and needs to look deeper and comme to shared actions were tabeled? ???
2) Why not check what was tabled before Rio by UNU and UIA? They were looking into inter-sectorial strategic dilemma. Policy makers still believe that they can manage the world with 2 levers and this without "alternative". What a naivite and blindness !
3) Why not expand the Solution Space when the Problem Space exploded over the last 40 years - as predicted ! I mean to go beyond dualisms and single subject/sector, one media, one sign, one or seldom 2 dimension considered.
4) Why not embody and contextualise issues and so explore from many positions with many perspectives.
5) Why not create an overarching frame of reference, I called it a Cognitive Panorama. So all compartments and time and space aspects can be seen in one picture/model called by some the Eco-Cube.
6) Why not get all issues onto the table. I feel there is lots of hype around Climate and CO2, but how about the Solid and Water nexus !? Can we really afford doing science by just focussing on specifics and ignoring or omiting Subjects, Interactions, Scales, Proportions, Consequences,...
7) why not explore other ways of deliberation, call it simply Dialog or New Agora, or Stammtisch, to explore not only what people think and mean, but how and when groups learn and change their minds in multi track Conversations, Dialogues, Peace-Making...
So understand how fast groups can collaboratively lean and come collectively to realisations and actions.
8) Revisit our education and innocation??? and futures creation. We did some recommendation in 1993, It might be good to revisit and build on towards Education for Sustainability, Culture and Peace/Coexistence....
9) Do not only mention the need for "overarching frameworks for action, but see what kind of work in this field has been done over the years:
Inter-sectoral Strategic Dilemmas of Sustainable Development - Configuring strategic dilemmas in intersectoral dialogue (Anthony Judge) who is about to (May 12 -2012) working on: Engendering 2052 through Re-imagining the Present Review of 2052: a Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years as presented to the Club of Rome providing extra views and first hand experiences since 1967. Highly recommended !
and maybe check out this presentation with ICSU-CODATA:
Using Maps and Models, SuperSigns and SuperStructures (Heiner Benking) and these Governance Recommendations] "Capacity to Govern" (CLUB OF ROME report)[Yehezkel Dror
BESIDES: I have written a lot about the above matter the last 20 years. So maybe check the top 4 of what GOOGLE comes up with when I query "intelligently" and the work of ngendering 2052 through Re-imagining the Present - Review of 2052: a Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years as presented to the Club of Rome Anthony Judge (UIA).
Interesting ranking articles on the subject (of mine in the Internet) receive the following links: SHOW OR SCHAU - Is Humanity Destined to Self-Destruct? as a Schau is embodied, alows multiperspective exzentric approaches and goes beyond the rulng paradign of using only words, figures, and icons to jointly negotate the world and develop shared orientations and targets.
Ignorance or Compassion. Limits and potentials of human concepts, maps and models with regard to nature.
International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics: Cognitive Spaces - Frames of References - ...
Towards a New Renaissance 3, Berlin, 2009
Harmonising Spirituality, Nature and Health.(PDF): EMBODYING, HARMONIZING and SHARING. OLD AND NEW SPACES & TIMES.
Broader and concrete recommendation for the U System I written in 2008. Have a look: UN - AMR eDiscussion: Achieving Sustainable Development
PS: May 21st
I received some question on me labeling someone an ALARMIST. I appreciate whistleblowing and alarming people in case of danger. I feel I fully subscribe to the Work of Forrester, Meadows, Jantsch,.. to present the limits and as later was presdented by Ries and Wackernagel, that we have a much to large footprint. The discussion of the Alarmists versus the Contrarians is as old as the tackling of the Anthropcean Global Problematique. I read the first CONTRARIAN Magazine in the office of Ernst von Weizsäcker 20 years ago.
So the Denyers are on the other side as they want to continue with business as usual.
Maybe I am a Super-Alarmist ! and this is needed as we do not know and can not know Futures. We have to prepare and reduce risks, create Futures on the walk, look into the inflcition of possible suffering and endangering the biosphere as we know it, and think big and small a the same time (we called it glocal) and include other positions and perspectives.
I opt for checking also the learnings from our Handprints and Mindprints [link]
and come to shared positive actions with space, time and cultural values dimensions and checking policy options. See: Structured Dialogic Design and Deliberatons and "Multi-track Diplomacy" and Peacemaking !, last not least: the Panetics Society. [link]
I hopes this helps and clarifies a little a highly complex and dynamic matter, and helps us avoid perplexing ignorance or doomsday - no way out - perspectives, which need to be clearly considered but avoided to end up with ! I feel the 2052 report is an important step on a long way to go !
_____________ EXCERPT from Club of Rome Website: (as an easy access backgrounder)
Here for comparison the CLUB OF ROME 6 GLOBAL GOALS from the WWF 50th & CoR book presentation event:
Shaping the future:
Six Global Goals Six global goals as essential for the transition towards a sustainable, equitable and „happier“ world:
1. Societal values, which are essential for a sustainable and equitable society, are fully reflected in all economic decisions.
2. The economies of the world reflect the value of natural and social capital, markets operate in a fair and transparent manner and deliver the goods and services required for a sustainable society.
3. A more equitable distribution of income both within and between countries.
4. Access to meaningful work, which provides enough income to lead a decent life, is guaranteed and recognized as an essential human right. Job generation has become a top priority for all investments, costs for unemployment are considered in decision-making.
5. Ecology is seen as a binding constraint for all forms of human activity and is therefore managed in a manner which reflects its biophysical and economic value. Never should the world be in overshoot.
6. Appropriate governance systems at a local, national and global level, which can manage the transition into an equitable and sustainable global world, are established.
Some more stuff for easier access with the help of GOOGLE:
2052: What will the future hold? | THE CLUB OF ROME (www ... www.clubofrome.org/?p=2114 - Diese Seite übersetzen The count-up to 2052: An overreaching framework for action ... Shaping the future: Six Global Goals • Institutions and delivery mechanisms • The New Working ... Shaping the future: Six Global Goals | THE CLUB OF ROME (www ... www.clubofrome.org/?p=2118 - Diese Seite übersetzen The count-up to 2052: An overreaching framework for action • Global limits, a systemic crisis ... Shaping the future: Six Global Goals. Six global goals as essential ... THE COUNT-UP TO 2052: AN OVERARCHING FRAMEWORK FOR ...
www.clubofrome.org/?p=703 - Diese Seite übersetzen Shaping the future: Six Global Goals • Institutions and delivery mechanisms ... May 7: Launch of major new Report to the Club of Rome : 2052: A Global Forecast ...