lugon: A flu pandemic: likely? soon? damage? action?    
 A flu pandemic: likely? soon? damage? action?6 comments
4 Oct 2005

The conditions for a flu pandemic are three - and two and a half of them are already present:
  • there's a new virus
  • it knows how to cause disease in humans
  • it may be learning how to go from one human to the next easily

When would it hit? No one knows. For all we know, it might start today, before 2006 ...

How hard would it be? No one knows. Currently it's 50+ deaths out of 100+ diseased - there are also non-certified cases, to be sure. Changes to be more transmissible may mean it's also less harmful ... but a case-fatality-ratio (dead among the diseased) of 2% is very different from 1% or 4%. IF it makes ill 3 out of 5 people, and kills 2% of those diseased, out of a world population of 6000+ million ...

A vaccine might take 6-8 months to the point of "scarcity" - before that, there would be none to share.

Antiviral drugs - the virus seems to be learning to resist it already.

We're left with the need to get ready: personally, communally, globally: Flu Wiki

Please do ask those near you (local politicians, business owners, community leaders) for their preparation and plans.

Please educate yourself here, here, here or here.

Please pass this on.


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6 comments

4 Oct 2005 @ 10:22 by gea : Hi, lugon
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