|Earthtribe-Gather: Gulf Stream|
18 comments17 May 2005 @ 08:28 by koravya : Write Your Congressman
An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United
States National Security
By Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall
Imagining the Unthinkable
The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable to push the boundaries of current
research on climate change so we may better understand the potential implications on United
States national security.
17 May 2005 @ 17:40 by koravya : Little by Little
On this page, we show some results from a set of coupled climate model experiments conducted at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in Princeton, New Jersey.
17 May 2005 @ 17:50 by koravya : One degree at a Time
The World View of Global Warming project is documenting this change through science photography from the Arctic to Antarctica, from glaciers to the oceans, across all climate zones. Rapid climate change and its effects is fast becoming one of the prime events of the 21st century. It is real and it is accelerating across the globe.
19 May 2005 @ 03:56 by koravya : StopGlobalWarming
THE STOP GLOBAL WARMING VIRTUAL MARCH ON WASHINGTON is a bi-partisan effort to bring all Americans together in one place, proving there is a vast consensus among Americans that global warming is here now and it is time for our country to start addressing it. With the support of leading scientists, political and religious leaders, prominent Americans and concerned citizens, the Virtual March on Washington will move across the United States via the Internet from one town to the next, showing the evidence of global warming's alarming progress, and highlighting real people's concerns and real solutions along the way.
A simulation of the projected changes in December to February mean temperatures from the period 1975 to 1995 to the period 2040 to 2060 is presented here. According to this projection, the Arctic would experience the greatest warming followed by other areas in northern Canada and central and northern Asia. Temperatures would generally increase as a result of the projected increases in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere. The results are based on climate change simulations made with the Coupled Global Climate Model developed by Environment Canada.
19 May 2005 @ 05:03 by koravya : The canary
Avian migration phenology and global climate change.
School of Biological Sciences, University of Plymouth, Plymouth PL4 8AA, United Kingdom. firstname.lastname@example.org
There is mounting evidence that global climate change has extended growing seasons, changed distribution patterns, and altered the phenology of flowering, breeding, and migration. For migratory birds, the timing of arrival on breeding territories and over-wintering grounds is a key determinant of reproductive success, survivorship, and fitness. But we know little of the factors controlling earlier passage in long-distance migrants. Over the past 30 years in Oxfordshire, U.K., the average arrival and departure dates of 20 migrant bird species have both advanced by 8 days; consequently, the overall residence time in Oxfordshire has remained unchanged. The timing of arrival has advanced in relation to increasing winter temperatures in sub-Saharan Africa, whereas the timing of departure has advanced after elevated summer temperatures in Oxfordshire. This finding demonstrates that migratory phenology is quite likely to be affected by global climate change and links events in tropical winter quarters with those in temperate breeding areas.
Drawing of map of possible changes in vegetation in North America, North Ollin.
Based on the uniform 3°C (5.4°F) mean increase in temperature used for this preliminary climate change impacts analysis, there appear to be regional patterns to the proportion of potentially vulnerable species in each state or province (Fig. 2). In this initially simplified analysis, the southeastern states have the highest percentage of species out of their climate envelopes, while the Great Plains states and provinces may experience proportionally fewer species losses. The relatively high proportion of species vulnerability in the Southeast may be due in part to the presence in state floras of Appalachian Mountain species at their southern range limits. Many of these species are already rare in states along their southern range limits and are likely to be lost from the local floras if the climate warms.
Human-caused climate change may occur at rates more than five times faster than any changes since the last glacial maximum, including the period of most rapid deglaciation.
Climate Change Links
19 May 2005 @ 20:14 by koravya : Tick Tock
From Robert B. Gagosian, President and Director, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Prepared for a panel on abrupt climate change at the World Economic ForumDavos, Switzerland, January 27, 2003
Are we overlooking potential abrupt climate shifts?
Most of the studies and debates on potential climate change, along with its ecological and economic impacts, have focused on the ongoing buildup of industrial greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and a gradual increase in global temperatures. This line of thinking, however, fails to consider another potentially disruptive climate scenario. It ignores recent and rapidly advancing evidence that Earths climate repeatedly has shifted abruptly and dramatically in the past, and is capable of doing so in the future.
The global ocean circulation system, often called the Ocean Conveyor, transports heat throughout the planet. White sections[in the accompanying diagram] represent warm surface currents. Purple sections represent deep cold currents. (Illustration by Jayne Doucette, WHOI Graphic Services)
Fossil evidence clearly demonstrates that Earth's climate can shift gears within a decade, establishing new and different patterns that can persist for decades to centuries. In addition, these climate shifts do not necessarily have universal, global effects. They can generate a counterintuitive scenario: Even as the earth as a whole continues to warm gradually, large regions may experience a precipitous and disruptive shift into colder climates.
19 May 2005 @ 20:38 by koravya : Burp
From the CONSERVATION SCIENCE INSTITUTE
Even though oceans cover 71 percent of the world's surface, few humans venture far from the coasts, and even fewer explore deeper than 100 feet down. Scientists therefore face difficulties in studying our warmed and warming seas. They have no baseline -- no pre-climate change census -- against which to systematically measure population shifts and declines. Nor do they understand the interrelationships within deep-sea ecosystems well enough to predict how those systems will respond to mounting human pressures.
Also waiting in the depths are unseen and scarcely understood dangers, such as the millions of tons of methane hydrates that lie frozen in the shadow of the world's continental shelves. If our fossil-fuel emissions warm the oceans sufficiently to melt and release this methane -- a gas 20 times more effective than CO2 at trapping heat -- we could see catastrophic climate change. Such a methane hydrate "burp" may have caused the Permian extinction around 250 million years ago, when more than 90 percent of life on earth vanished.
20 May 2005 @ 03:53 by koravya : The Yellow Brick Road
from:With Eyes Wide Shut
Climate Change Threatens the Future of Humanity, but we Refuse to Respond Rationally
by George Monbiot
"Were we governed by reason, we would be on the barricades today, dragging the drivers of Range Rovers and Nissan Patrols out of their seats, occupying and shutting down the coal-burning power stations, bursting in upon the Blairs' retreat from reality in Barbados and demanding a reversal of economic life as dramatic as the one we bore when we went to war with Hitler. Instead, . . .
20 May 2005 @ 04:14 by koravya : keywords
Migration of methane gas through the hydrate stability zone in a low-flux hydrate province
Andrew R. Gorman, W. Steven Holbrook, Matthew J. Hornbach, and Kara L. Hackwith
Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming 82071, USA
School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 30332, USA
Institute for Geophysics, University of Texas, Austin, Texas 78759, USA
Manuscript Received by the Society August 13, 2001
Revised Manuscript Received November 21, 2001
Manuscript Accepted November 28, 2001
New high-resolution seismic data show clear evidence for upward injection of methane gas well into the hydrate stability zone at the stable, low-methane-flux Blake Ridge crest. This movement of gaseous methane, through a thermo-dynamic regime where it should be trapped as hydrate, suggests that dynamic migrations of gas play an important role in the interaction of subseafloor methane with the ocean. In the study area, none of the seismic amplitude anomalies that provide evidence for gas migration reaches the seafloor; instead they terminate at the base of a highly reflective, unfaulted capping layer. Seismic inversions of anomalous regions show (1) increased velocities beneath the hydrate stability zone, suggesting less gas, and (2) increased velocities within the hydrate stability zone associated with observed low-amplitude chimneys and bright spots, indicating increased hydrate concentrations. These observations and analyses indicate that methane migrates upward as free gas hundreds of meters into the hydrate stability zone before forming hydrate. The observations strongly imply that given appropriate permeable pathways, free gas can escape into the ocean. Even in a low-flux environment, the hydrate stability zone is not an impermeable barrier to free-gas migration.
Keywords: methane hydrate, methane flux, gas dynamics, seismic reflection, waveform inversion.
20 May 2005 @ 04:23 by koravya : Commercialize it !
The combination of low temperature and high pressure found at the bottom of Earth's oceans makes methane clathrates very stable. It is thought that as much as 20 times the current known reserves of natural gas may be contained within ocean-floor clathrate deposits, representing a potentially important future source of fossil fuel that scientists believe could serve as earth's main energy source for hundreds or thousands of years. The chief problem in using methane clathrate commercially is detecting it.
20 May 2005 @ 04:33 by koravya : Lights out !
THE PEAK OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION AND THE ROAD TO THE OLDUVAI GORGE
Richard C. Duncan, Ph.D.1
Pardee Keynote Symposia
Geological Society of America
November 13, 2000
The Olduvai theory has been called unthinkable, preposterous, absurd, dangerous, self-fulfilling, and self-defeating. I offer it, however, as an inductive theory based on world energy and population data and on what Ive seen during the past 30 years in some 50 nations on all continents except Antarctica. It is also based on my experience in electrical engineering and energy management systems, my hobbies of anthropology and archaeology, and a lifetime of reading in various fields.
The theory is defined by the ratio of world energy production (use) and world population. The details are worked out. The theory is easy. It states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal to 100 years: 1930-2030.
World energy production per capita from 1945 to 1973 grew at a breakneck speed of 3.45 %/year. Next from 1973 to the all-time peak in 1979, it slowed to a sluggish 0.64 %/year. Then suddenly and for the first time in history energy production per capita took a long-term decline of 0.33 %/year from 1979 to 1999. The Olduvai theory explains the 1979 peak and the subsequent decline. More to the point, it says that energy production per capita will fall to its 1930 value by 2030, thus giving Industrial Civilization a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years.
Should this occur, any number of factors could be cited as the 'causes' of collapse. I believe, however, that the collapse will be strongly correlated with an 'epidemic' of permanent blackouts of high-voltage electric power networks worldwide. Briefly explained: "When the electricity goes out, you are back in the Dark Age. And the Stone Age is just around the corner."
The Olduvai theory, of course, may be proved wrong. But, as of now, it cannot be rejected by the historic world energy production and population data.
Institute on Energy and Man
5307 Ravenna Place NE, #1
Seattle, WA 98105
21 May 2005 @ 04:28 by koravya : Artificials
From: Where will it end_ by Jane Hansen
"Die-off and, in its final form, die-out,is a phenomenon common in the history of zoology and botany, and the dodo and the passenger pigeon are not exceptional. There is, for example, the everyday but suggestive experience of yeast cells introduced into a wine vat. Enormously successful as a species, they gobble up nutrients from the sugary crushed grapes around them and expand their population without a thought to the consequences of drawdown; within weeks, however, the 'pollution' they producealcohol and carbon dioxide, which of course is what the fermentation is all abouthave so filled their environment that they are unable to survive. The resulting crash, in that vat at least, means an acute die-off and then extinction.
from:Dead, Wrong_ at dieoff.org
We left reality when we believed the "infinite earth ideas" of Locke, Smith, and Marx. Our "present destruction" (economic system) encourages its disciples to dominate and exploit each other and nature, and rewards the most powerful, aggressive, and ruthless with even more power and riches. Since the system actively destroys people and the environment (both morally and physically), it requires a continuous feast of new people and natural resources.
In essence, this method ingests natural-living systems (including people) in one end, and excretes un-natural-dead garbage and waste (including wasted people) out the otherdevelopment and progress. The entropy law dictates that this method can not run in reverse. Our society can not be "de-developed" and "de-progressed".
We, like the Sorcerer's Apprentice, call forth "artificials" (large corporations) to faithfully administer our present destruction. Artificials may be seen as autonomous technical structures (machines) that follow the logic inherent in their design. They have no innate morals to keep them from seducing our politicians, subverting our democratic processes or lying to maximize profit. Today, the artificials are transforming life into death as efficiently and as quickly as they can.
Now we find that Locke, Smith, Marx, and that entire "dismal science" called economicswere wrong. Dead wrong. We find that we actually do live in a finite world with a finite life-support system that may be destroyed in less than 35 years. Yet we are unable to call the artificials back because they have stolen our only means to do so: our so-called political system.
Thus, the artificials will rip, tear, and gulp down our life-support system till it's gone. We gambled it all and we were wrong. Dead. Wrong.
21 May 2005 @ 18:48 by astrid : What ever you do, John
I would warmly suggest that you print out Mary Elisabeth Croft's book: "How I Clobbered....." and READ it NOW!!!! At this moment there's NOTHING more IMPORTANT to do!.... the MORE OF US WHO "GET IT"; the better off ALL Humankind will be!.... THIS IS THE TRUTH!....
Vaxen has been on to this for... God knows how long... and tried to make US, the rest here on ncn, to see it!.... NOW we have a book that can be held in our hands and we can read at any time, anywhere etc, what Vax has been SAYING "only digitally" .....We can do it now just by the effort of printing it out!... and quite franky, we do it as speediently as we feel our life worth LIVING, not just existing, struggling, fighting/ resisting, "hoping-against-all-odds" etc !....
HAPPY READING to you all!
The Gulf Stream can be "taken care of" ONLY in this manner described in Croft's book!
23 May 2005 @ 01:13 by koravya : Thanks
Thanks for the reminder Astrid.
I have a printed copy, and I will get to reading it soon.
Study: Siberian Bogs Big Player in Greenhouse Gas
for National Geographic News
January 15, 2004
Northern Russia's vast peat bogs may play a pivotal role in regulating greenhouse gas levels throughout the world, according to a new study.
The barren peatlands of Siberia have been a massive methane producer since soon after the last ice age some 12,000 years ago, far longer than previously thought, scientists say. They also found evidence that suggests peat bogs rank among the world's top carbon stores, absorbing huge amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Both methane and carbon dioxide are key greenhouse gases. They absorb long-wave radiation and trap heat in the Earth's lower atmosphere. The research team says this makes northern Russian a major player in future global warming scenarios.
23 May 2005 @ 02:30 by astrid : Yes, that was interesting...
The BIG Question still remains: when and where did the biological Evolution of Earth Life begin and end?....and HAS IT ENDED???... or is just Humans who want to think it has ended? There's many of us who intuite that Mother Earth/Gaya is raising Her vibrations just as many humans are, at this time, and that does have an impact on Her physical Being as well, just like our rise in conciousness does change our DNA/ genetic structure!
The issues that should be our TRUE concern as far as Mother Earth goes, instead, is the Question of Life styles, as far as intrucive with our pollution.... We should each and every one of us, choose to live as non-toxic lives as ever possible, for Her sake as well as our own!...
... and those for whom complicity through complacancy, to atrocites, is more important than standing up, choosing a more sustainable life, they are consciously destroying Earth and Her chances to move to higher vibrations, just like their own personal rise in vibrations is styfled!...
These people do not love their children and childrens's children!.... They don't love Mother Earth. They don't love their Neighbours. They don't love themselves!
Let Mother Earth do what She knows She needs to do!... just stop hindering Her! Stop poisoning Her!.... The rest SHE will take care of! IF "Global Warming" is part of that process, that's HER decicion as long as OUR lifestyle don't FORCE such a situation on Her!...
We don't REALLY know how these Earth process have been going on for all these b/m/illions of years. We just make "educated guesses" and one after the other has proven later, at some point, to be incorrect! The Newtoninan/Cartecian Physics and Darwinian Biology was NOT a true Science, but a hogwash pseudo-science concocted to justify the kings' and queen's and their Playmate's need of justification and misleading /seduction of the "Masses" in order to screw up any possible intuitive /spontaneous connecting with LIFE/Mother Earth and the Cosmic TRUTHS inherent within these as well as us, (just for the sake if being one with them!)
Now, when are we going to acknowledge all THIS???
I personally do not "buy" all M.E.C. says in her book, ( Esoteric views are the ones I carefully checked out, tested, analysed etc, only to find them being part of that same sham as the Newt. Physics and Darwin's Theories... but in her Socio-Monetary Statements, she is 100% right on,I am sure! Let me know what you think, eh? : )
23 May 2005 @ 17:11 by koravya : We shall see
Astrid, your passionate concern is inspirational.
The biological evolution of the Earth has not necessaruily ended, although the biological evolution of humans may be on the verge of ending, except and unless, of course, our collective enlightened consciousness simply leaves this old physical plane behind in the furnace which our dear planet might very well become. Or, perhaps a few isolated pockets of isolated humans may manage to get through the conflagration to get the show back on the road again. Better luck next time!
". . . If we trigger this runaway release of methane, there's no turning back. No do-overs. Once it starts, it's likely to play out all the way. . . .
How likely is it that humans will cause methane burps by burning fossil fuels? No one knows. But it is somewhere between possible and likely at this point, and it becomes more likely with each passing year that we fail to act. . . ."
24 May 2005 @ 04:23 by astrid : Well, see that's the Thingggg.....IF
we continue in whichever way with ever methods to INTERFERE with Mother Earth's work the way She needs to do to do it right!... We're killing ourselves with our arrogance!...thinking we know how to do HER things or handle Her processes!.... We DON'T. Period!...
This reminds me of Tesla, who built a Resonance Maker and he very soon knew its power and he himself said "I can split the Earth in two with resonance alone!" ... and then he destroyed his machine and papers, containing any Info about it.
The Mainstream scientists, the bought ones , who work for the BigBoys, are faaar toooo much OUT of integrity -not to mention sheer Knowledge of TRUE Physics, so they can very well trigger ANY meyhem!.... ANY! Stupid dorks!... But IIIIiiii, Astrid, now decice that they will NOT be able to do any bigger harm! They will destroy themselves before they will be allowed to come "too close for comfort" as far as messing with Mother Earth. We, who so declare, will always be safe and sound and our Homes / areas of our Homes will always be safe and sound ( and protected! Wanna join in my Declaration of Safety and Soundness and the Manifesting of Heaven on Earth? This, of course, means jumping of the Establishment-built Wagon!.... and build our own!
I'll be happy to have you /any you who is serious about this!/ there! : )
24 May 2005 @ 07:51 by koravya : With you here
Declaration of Safety and Soundness and the Manifesting of Heaven on Earth.
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